Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 82453.273223 87047.363059 91641.127776 96575.966969 101723.887377 106932.406960 112597.250694
2025-02-23 74786.017830 81814.382006 89040.692636 97015.613410 105559.500529 114427.960016 124318.814415
2025-03-02 69124.591832 77784.605816 86885.930078 97143.152873 108359.937094 120231.926950 133725.777753
2025-03-09 65574.004913 75538.785189 86202.904842 98429.815745 112025.104054 126642.006650 143508.985902
2025-03-16 61667.215450 72547.843262 84382.165445 98159.168389 113704.177000 130647.903169 150458.265554
2025-03-23 59434.116222 71224.917265 84232.282769 99576.937510 117111.363686 136449.676830 159314.563131
2025-03-30 57194.172412 69728.049778 83737.901516 100468.079796 119808.546142 141368.313356 167119.783036
2025-04-06 54775.590765 67880.292791 82711.796019 100628.231201 121566.432682 145141.746034 173567.431252
2025-04-13 52474.340609 66048.970515 81595.082510 100580.010837 122994.670261 148469.359001 179456.038119
2025-04-20 51220.328362 65386.261958 81783.739248 102004.915426 126098.234372 153709.583363 187557.791527
2025-04-27 50045.196029 64752.152583 81949.856538 103355.110742 129080.033381 158792.728845 195483.542724
2025-05-04 48604.266959 63727.298938 81589.049885 104023.004088 131211.501381 162853.857767 202204.007641
2025-05-11 46866.486584 62294.038625 80703.388631 104040.226603 132565.836309 166020.973619 207923.226215
2025-05-18 45487.823867 61257.357751 80260.017102 104561.933309 134508.612115 169886.382009 214494.723338
2025-05-25 44012.808524 60043.268376 79548.090555 104709.017700 135960.993107 173143.363680 220333.862219
2025-06-01 43219.195585 59660.100532 79840.932407 106078.632167 138901.853585 178203.167591 228375.265273
2025-06-08 41697.562492 58288.042820 78843.758983 105791.586172 139758.538838 180702.810618 233293.744301
2025-06-15 41083.588838 58067.152479 79282.861336 107297.996681 142842.655180 185938.267871 241586.528035
2025-06-22 40255.739037 57534.389941 79297.369517 108244.683869 145213.803326 190296.825602 248818.966005
2025-06-29 39132.137541 56573.183996 78727.373460 108414.808116 146583.588937 193404.404309 254507.989226
2025-07-06 37969.914657 55523.609174 78009.292825 108363.587878 147648.373054 196118.326220 259706.950319
2025-07-13 37518.556647 55413.528013 78505.032999 109877.052266 150711.801972 201346.880687 268076.897656
2025-07-20 37057.433379 55272.117008 78945.939137 111310.942259 153673.925564 206460.557769 276332.133943